{"id":2053,"date":"2026-06-19T15:01:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T12:01:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gradus.app\/?post_type=report&p=2053"},"modified":"2026-06-25T13:30:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T10:30:43","slug":"ukrainian-migrants-return-gradus-data","status":"publish","type":"report","link":"https:\/\/gradus.app\/en\/report\/ukrainian-migrants-return-gradus-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Half of surveyed Ukrainian migrants are considering returning to Ukraine but don’t know when: new Gradus data"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the fifth year since the start of the full-scale war, surveyed Ukrainians living in EU countries are increasingly evaluating their future not only through the lens of developments in Ukraine, but also through their own experience of living abroad. According to the third wave of the study on return factors among Ukrainian migrants residing in EU countries, conducted by Gradus in May 2026, security remains the primary consideration. However, quality of life, professional opportunities, and the migration policies of EU countries are becoming increasingly decisive factors.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Half of temporary migrants still intend to return<\/b><\/h3>\n

According to the study, 53% of Ukrainian migrants are currently considering returning to Ukraine. At the same time, the share of those who do not plan to return even if the war ends on terms acceptable to Ukraine has risen to 31%, compared with 13% a year earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Notably, for most respondents, the prospect of return no longer has a clear timeline. Two-thirds of those surveyed are unable to say when they would be ready to return to Ukraine. Only 4% plan to do so within the current year, while another 11% expect to return during the following year. Even the end of hostilities is no longer perceived as an automatic trigger for return. Only 9% of respondents living in EU countries say they would return within the first month after the war ends.<\/span><\/p>\n

Intentions also vary by country of residence. Among Ukrainian migrants in Poland, 21% are prepared to return within the current or following year, compared with 18% in Germany and 10% in other EU countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

What keeps surveyed Ukrainians in Europe<\/b><\/h3>\n

Security remains the most important factor influencing respondents\u2019 decision to stay abroad. After declining somewhat in previous years, the significance of this factor increased again in 2026 and remains the highest among all measured factors, cited by 86% of respondents.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the study demonstrates a gradual shift in motivations. While security concerns were the dominant reason during the first years of the war, long-term life prospects are now playing an increasingly important role.<\/p>\n

The opportunity to achieve a higher quality of life abroad remains the second most significant factor, cited by 77% of respondents. Professional development opportunities, broader career and educational prospects, and the overall stability of the living environment are also important considerations.<\/p>\n

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A new pattern of migration behaviour is effectively emerging: survey respondents increasingly view their host countries not merely as temporary shelters from war, but as places where they can plan their long-term future. <\/span><\/p>\n

What could encourage respondents to return to Ukraine<\/b><\/h3>\n

Despite gradually integrating into new societies, surveyed Ukrainians maintain a strong emotional connection with their home country. 67% percent of respondents cite being close to family and friends, a sense of belonging to Ukraine, and a desire to contribute to the country\u2019s recovery among the reasons that could motivate them to return.<\/p>\n

At the same time, difficulties adapting to a new environment, language barriers, challenges in the labour and housing markets, and limited social networks are also among the factors that encourage consideration of returning.<\/p>\n

However, factors that have traditionally been associated with return intentions are gradually losing their influence. The importance of a pro-Ukrainian environment abroad, declining quality of life in host countries, or adaptation difficulties has decreased year after year. This suggests that a significant share of respondents are successfully integrating into their new societies and increasingly view their stay in Europe as something more permanent than a temporary solution.<\/p>\n

The decision to return is increasingly shaped outside Ukraine<\/b><\/h3>\n

The study highlights an important shift: whereas return decisions previously depended primarily on the security situation in Ukraine, living conditions in host countries are now playing an increasingly important role.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Respondents identify potential reductions in support programmes for Ukrainians, changes to temporary protection status, or deteriorating economic conditions in EU countries as more influential drivers of return than developments taking place directly in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00abThe results of the third wave of the survey, which will be presented at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026, indicate that for many survey participants living in the EU, migration is no longer a temporary response to war. Over time, people integrate into new communities, build careers, establish social connections, and make long-term plans. As a result, the prospect of millions of refugees returning after the war will increasingly depend not only on the arrival of peace, but also on how competitive living conditions in Ukraine become and what policies European countries choose to adopt regarding Ukrainians\u2019 future stay,<\/em>\u00bb says sociologist, Founder and CEO of Gradus, Evgeniya Blyznyuk.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

To request the full report, please contact us at media@gradus.app.<\/b><\/p>\n

The study was conducted by Gradus using a self-administered questionnaire in the Gradus mobile application. The target audience comprised Ukrainian migrants aged 18\u201360 residing in EU countries. Fieldwork was conducted from 5 to 14 May 2026. The sample included 696 respondents.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gradus has unveiled the third wave of its research on the factors influencing the return of Ukrainian migrants residing in the EU.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":2057,"template":"","report_cat":[4],"class_list":["post-2053","report","type-report","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","report_cat-press-releases"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gradus.app\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/report\/2053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gradus.app\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/report"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gradus.app\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/report"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gradus.app\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2057"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gradus.app\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"report_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gradus.app\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/report_cat?post=2053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}